historic lows,  according to the council's report.

Heather Pfeifer, a criminal justice professor at the University of Baltimore, praised the work of the city's political leaders, law enforcement, prosecutors and residents, calling the results  exceptional. 

But she said officials cannot focus solely on statistics. They also need to convince often skeptical residents that crime - particularly violent crime - really is down. That is not an easy task, she said, given widespread skepticism of institutions ranging from City Hall to the news media.

 Sometimes when we see the numbers, we get caught up in the statistics … and we forget the humanity,  Pfeifer said.

Deadly years

Baltimore's recent decline follows one of the city's deadliest stretches in decades.

While other cities also experienced crime surges between 2015 and 2022, Baltimore's increase came after a period of relatively lower violence, following the years when the city recorded more than 300 killings annually throughout the 1990s.

During that decade, Baltimore averaged nearly 321 homicides a year. With an average population of 703,223 residents, the city's average homicide rate was more than 45.6 per 100,000 residents.

The surge in violence during the 1990s is largely attributed to the rise of the crack epidemic, which, because of factors including the drug's low cost and easier access to firearms, sparked violent turf wars.

 Nationally, police generally attribute the increase to the burgeoning inner-city drug trade and the proliferation of firearms, particularly semiautomatic handguns. Locally, homicide detectives are saying pretty much the same thing,  then-Baltimore Sun reporter David Simon wrote in December 1990.

In the years between the 1990s and the post-2015 surge, Baltimore averaged slightly more than 246 homicides a year. The city's population averaged 635,063 residents during that period, for a homicide rate of 39 per 100,000 residents.

Then, in 2015, killings surged locally and nationally.

Baltimore averaged more than 333 killings a year between 2015 and 2022. During that period, the city's population averaged 597,293 residents, and its homicide rate averaged nearly 56 per 100,000.

There are theories about what caused the increase in violence nationally and in Baltimore, including civil unrest following the death of Freddie Gray in police custody and the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. But unlike the 1990s, the cause is not clear.

Have a news tip? Contact Adam Bednar at abednar@baltsun.com *or 443-890-7423.