Baltimore is on pace to record fewer homicides this year than it did during its record-low 2025 - and could finish 2026 with its lowest homicide rate in nearly five decades, according to a Baltimore Sun analysis of census and police department data.

Through August, police reported 72 homicides, an average of nine per month. If killings continue at that pace through the end of the year, Baltimore would finish with about 108, down from 136 last year.

The 136 homicides recorded in 2025 were the fewest since the city started tracking homicides in 1970, but the city's homicide rate - nearly 24 per 100,000 residents - was the second-lowest over that period, a reflection of Baltimore's 37% population decline since then. Last year was only the 11th time since 1970 that Baltimore's homicide rate fell below 30 per 100,000 residents, and the first time since 1985.

The city's lowest homicide rate came in 1977, when Baltimore recorded 171 killings among an estimated 829,800 residents, or about 20.6 homicides per 100,000. If Baltimore finishes this year near its current pace, its homicide rate could fall below that 1977 mark, depending on the 2026 population estimate. The U.S. Census Bureau typically releases annual population estimates in the spring of the following year.

In a statement last week, Mayor Brandon Scott credited police, prosecutors, residents and his staff for the decreases in violent crime.

 Our progress this summer is a testament to all of these individuals - and to the importance of the proven, data- and community-driven strategies that are delivering real results,  Scott said.

Baltimore's decline mirrors a broader national trend. Homicides nationwide fell about 18% last year, according to FBI statistics. A Council on Criminal Justice midyear 2026 report found that reported homicides across the cities it studied were down 18% during the first half of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.

While statistics from a variety of sources show homicides are trending down, it remains unclear what, exactly, is driving the decline .

 There is no single or easy explanation for these 

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